Guys, if you're planning on getting rich via betting on the Oscars, Best Original Score is not the category you should necessarily be playing your money on. Not many people pay attention, frankly. If you do however, you should know that odds hardly matter at all and you should go with your best educated guess. People don't tend to care about Best Original Score nominees and hence "experts" don't tend to do much research toward what will win and why. For example, the odds on favorite to win Best Score before this morning was Gone Girl, probably because the last time Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross did this, they won for Social Network.
Here are the five nominees below and their odds, via Gold Derby, along with why they're right (or most likely wrong).
01) The Theory of Everything by Jóhann Jóhannsson (10/3)
We already gave The Theory of Everything pretty good odds to win at the BAFTAs, rationalizing that modern voters are hip, or at least want to appear hip, by throwing themselves behind the most moderately experimental options available. Considering that Mica Levi, the musician behind Under The Skin (which won at the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards) wasn't even nominated, that leaves Jóhann Jóhannsson and his electronica-infused The Theory of Everything near the top. Normally we would pick this in a runaway but we're thrown off by one major factor, named Alexandre Desplat. More on that later.
02) Interstellar by Hans Zimmer (11/2)
Hans Zimmer is another name that it's easy to fall in love with, if only because he's the most recognizable name outside of John Williams when it comes to film scoring. He has a historically low rate of success however...only taking home the prize in one of his seven nominations (for 1994's The Lion King). One other problem: Last year's winner was Steven Price's Gravity score, the soundtrack to an artfully-done film about space drama. Such as the content featured during Interstellar. As we said when previewing the BAFTAs, that's all petty and shouldn't be considered...but it totally will be. The Academy doesn't want to look like it only supports space dramas.
03) The Imitation Game by Alexandre Desplat (11/2)
As we mentioned before, Desplat serves as the biggest hurdle for Jóhannsson if he wants to take home this trophy. Not only is Desplat nominated for The Imitation Game, he also has The Grand Budapest Hotel. Desplat has also traditionally been a loser at the Oscars, failing to win in his previous six nominations. Now that he's got two chances, it's tough to see him not taking the prize. The Imitation Game didn't receive much love from music categories at other awards shows, most likely because it's much more conservative in nature than other nominees, even Budapest. That may be the ticker however: If The Oscars wish to stand apart from other shows, going the against the grain with the more underrated Desplat offering might be the ticket.
04) The Grand Budapest Hotel by Alexandre Desplat (20/1)
We were surprised to see that Desplat with two horses in the ring but we were even more surprised to see that oddsmakers pegged The Imitation Game as a better pick than The Grand Budapest Hotel. The latter film incorporated traditional Russian folk music and other "exotic" elements such as flamenco guitars to set it apart. However, despite being one of the most nominated films, Budapest is also the most primed for a letdown. Expect awards won to realistically come from the lesser appreciated categories, such as Best Cinematography and Best Production Design. And, although we suggested it would be rude to nominate a composer twice and not let him win, it's happened before, most notably to John Williams during 1989, James Horner during 1995 and Willams again during 2001.
05) Mr. Turner by Gary Yershon (100/1)
As often happens, the last spot goes to a relatively unknown contestant. Yershon is largely unknown in film outside of his work with Mr. Turner director Mike Leigh. Let's be blunt: Voters will see that Desplat has two nominations and has never won in the past. Jóhannsson has one of the most acclaimed scores of the year. Zimmer, if nothing else, has his name. Considering that Mr. Turner didn't receive any major award nominations, we'd be surprised if many of the voters even saw this film. Yershon hopefully enjoys the honor and ceremony, because 100/1 odds are gracious.
